Saturday, June 06, 2009

Strikeforce Preview

Originally posted on

Andrei Arlovski vs Brett Rogers

This is a difficult fight to predict. Arlovski is coming off a truly horrific knockout loss to Fedor. Historically, fighters do not rebound well from those. There is also the late booking. This fight was announced two and half weeks ago.

Arlovski was supposed to be preparing for a six round boxing match on June 27th. It's weird to say the least. I'm not sure if Arlovski is crazy or stupid. For Rogers, the decision to take the fight was a no-brainer. It's an excellent opportunity for a power puncher to knock out a big name opponent who often goes down hard.

Let me explain a little bit about why the timing of the fight perplexes me. Arlovski is training for a boxing match. His mindset is completely on stand-up. No wrestling, grappling, etc. He might be in great shape for a boxing match, but I find it hard to believe his body is ready for wrestling. It's a different conditioning.

This isn't to say Rogers is a wrestling powerhouse and will wear down Arlovski. He is good in close, though. He also outweighs Arlovski by twenty pounds. If Rogers leans on Arlovski a bit early, we might see a tired fighter as the fight goes on. I just don't get why he and his camp would ever agree to the fight on two and half weeks notice.

I'm going with the underdog. He will probably lose the 1st Round, but I think Arlovski will tire a bit in the second and leave himself open for a big strike. Rogers by second Round KO.

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